Bitcoin Bid Again As Risk-On Trading Returns
BTC Higher on Thursday
Bitcoin prices continue to stabilise on Thursday with the futures market pushing tentatively higher. The move comes amidst the broad de-escalation trade sweeping markets today fuelled by rising optimism that a US/Iran peace deal is getting closer. Yesterday, Trump said that negotiations had entered their final stages, echoing previous comments that the war would likely end in coming weeks. Risk assets have rallied across the board in response to the news though upside has been somewhat limited by hawkish Fed expectations which are keeping USD underpinned for now.
Hawkish FOMC Mins
The release of the April FOMC minutes last night revealed a firmly hawkish shift in sentiment with several members seen favouring a move towards hiking. CME group pricing for a hike by year end has now risen above the 50% level. However, much of this hawkish outlook is premised on the view that the Iran war would drag on longer keeping energy prices (and inflationary pressures) turned higher. If we do get news of a deal and energy prices sell off heavily, this could fuel a dovish repricing in the Fed rates outlook, leading USD lower. In this scenario, BTC and the broader risk complex stands to benefit greatly with BTC primed for a fresh leg higher as ETF inflows explode again.
Technical Views
BTC
The sell off in BTC has stalled for now into the middle of the bull channel and ahead of the $74,270 level. While this area holds as support, focus is on a fresh push higher with $80,185 the first challenge ahead of the bigger target at $84,530.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.