Bitcoin Remains Muted for Now

Bitcoin prices remain in the red midweek with the futures market still in corrective mode following the rally we saw across April and early May. Much of that rally had been driven by rising optimism at the time that a peace deal was on the way following the initial ceasefire announcement and the first extension. However, bulls soon lost conviction in the prospect of a short-term peace deal and BTC was seen correcting around 30% of the rally off YTD lows. Over the course of the rally, ETF inflows were seen rebounding strongly from the low levels seen across Q4 with inflows topping $1 billion, matching prior record highs.

ETF Outflows

In recent days however, ETF flows have turned negative again with traders moving out of BTC and into gold and other more defensive positions Uncertainty around the Iran war has fuelled plenty of volatility in markets recently with conflicting news signals making it difficult for traders to get a grasp on the prospect of a deal. For now, it seems that there is residual layer of optimism in markets that a deal will be done and if we do hear any positive news in coming days and weeks, this should provide the catalyst for a fresh move higher in BTC with ETF inflows likely to rebound again accordingly.

Technical Views

BTC

For now, BTC remains the lower half of the bull channel that has framed the move off YTD lows. While still above the $74,280 level and the channel lows, focus is on a fresh push higher and a further test of the $80,185 level with $84,530 above as the bigger target.