G10 FX Update – 7 January 2026
EUR:
Market remains tentative amid geopolitical tensions (Venezuela, Greenland, Ukraine). US data (ADP, JOLTS, ISM, payrolls) and Supreme Court tariff opinion in focus. Dollar direction remains uncertain; growth outlook stable. Favor bullish exposure with hedges. Portfolio: Long AUD, SEK, PLN (via EUR) vs. short CAD. Exited tactical EUR longs due to soft inflation prints and limited upside. EUR stuck despite Ukraine progress; Greenland developments may weigh.
GBP:
Struggling for direction ahead of NFP; recent false break above 1.3525/35. USD buying dominates early 2026. Sterling lacks momentum; European re-alignment rhetoric may impact shorts. Key levels: EURGBP 0.8639 (200d), 0.86 support, 0.87 resistance. GBPUSD support at 1.3400/10, resistance at 1.3600/10. Quiet UK calendar except REC survey Friday.
JPY:
China’s response to Takaichi’s Taiwan comments escalates tensions, impacting sentiment. US employment data (ADP, JOLTS) to influence USD more than JPY. Prefer selling JPY on rallies; 155.40/60 support, 158 resistance.
CHF:
EURCHF testing 0.93 on mixed flows. Regional growth outlook supports medium-term EURCHF upside. Key levels: 0.9270 support, 0.9400 resistance. USDCHF levels: 0.7860/0.8000.
AUD/NZD:
Australia’s monthly inflation print aligns with RBA’s forecast; AUDUSD hit 14-month high at 0.6766. Reduced AUDUSD longs, increased AUDCAD exposure due to risk concerns. AUDNZD overbought; tactical trade opportunities near 1.1500.
CAD:
USDCAD moved above 1.3800 on USD demand and Venezuela oil headlines (50M barrels to US). Focus shifts to Canadian/US payroll data. Still favor short CAD.
SEK/NOK:
NOK weakened by Venezuela oil news and Brent dip; EURNOK downside less appealing. SEK PMI remains strong; maintain core short EURSEK, add near 10.82/85. Greenland tensions may weigh on DKK, though impact minimal so far.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!