Daily Market Outlook, April 14, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Stocks saw an upswing while oil prices took a dip following President Donald Trump's suggestion to reopen talks with Iran, sparking optimism for a potential agreement that might alleviate tensions in the Middle East. Treasuries also benefited from the shift, with the 10-year yield easing down by one basis point to 4.28%, as the decline in oil prices contributed to a decrease in inflation concerns. After two days of losses, gold made a comeback, trading close to $4,775 per ounce, while Bitcoin surged to approximately $74,400. Copper reached its highest point in over a month. Technology stocks played a pivotal role in this market movement, with MSCI’s Asia Pacific tech index soaring by 4.2%. Notably, companies like Kioxia experienced a remarkable 15% increase in Tokyo. Taiwan’s main index hit a record high as investors flocked back to artificial intelligence-related stocks, perceived as less vulnerable to the Iran situation. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 3.4%, buoyed by improved sentiment that helped the S&P 500 recover from losses tied to geopolitical strife. Brent crude oil fell by 1.5% to $97.90 per barrel amid indications that Washington and Tehran might be on the verge of resuming negotiations, despite the US maintaining a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar weakened against most major currencies, while Treasuries gained ground as the easing oil prices alleviated inflation worries. Overall, equities are on the rise as investors are encouraged by the prospect of US-Iran discussions advancing, bolstering confidence in a potential deal despite ongoing tensions. The blockade is considered a strategic move to limit Iran’s oil revenues while ensuring secure shipping routes, which reinforces hopes that energy supplies might eventually stabilise.

March's economic data highlights the immediate impact of the energy shock, with PMIs signalling rising input costs and dampening output forecasts. Consumer sentiment varies by region: nations with already low confidence, such as Australia and Switzerland, saw minimal further declines, while previously optimistic markets like Canada and Italy experienced significant hits. Notably, Eurozone confidence plummeted despite stability in the UK and US, casting doubt on the 40% market-implied probability of an April ECB rate hike. Similarly, a sharp drop in Japanese sentiment aligns with the decreasing likelihood of a BoJ hike in April.

UK CPI currently maintains a 0.7 percentage point lead over US CPI, with inflation swaps pricing this differential to expand to 1 percentage point by early 2027. However, this consensus remains highly vulnerable to geopolitical instability, specifically a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Under an oil shock scenario where prices rise by a sustained $40, the UK-US inflation spread could undergo a complete inversion. As a net energy importer, the UK would experience a front-loaded inflation surge that aggressively erodes real incomes and triggers significant demand destruction. In contrast, the United States benefits from a structural buffer via domestic energy production, likely resulting in more persistent, wage-driven inflationary pressures. Macroeconomic modelling suggests that the initial energy spike would elevate UK figures, but the subsequent collapse in demand would generate powerful disinflationary momentum. Consequently, the UK is projected to undershoot both market consensus and its 2% inflation target within twelve months, effectively reversing the current market positioning and the existing inflation differential.

Overnight Headlines

• DATA SUMMARY

• - China's Trade Balance (Mar): $51.13B (est. $107.55B; prev. $90.98B)

• - Exports (Y/Y): 2.5% (est. 8.6%; prev. 39.6%)

• - Imports (Y/Y): 27.8% (est. 13.9%; prev. 13.8%)

• - Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Apr): -12.5% (prev. 1.2%)

• - UK BRC Sales (Y/Y, Mar): 3.1% (est. 0.9%; prev. 0.7%)

• GOVERNMENT/CENTRAL BANKS

• - China’s exports fell in March, while imports showed significant growth.

• - RBA's Hauser expresses low confidence in current interest rates.

• - Singapore tightens monetary policy amid inflation risks from Middle East tensions.

• - Fed's Miran anticipates inflation nearing target within a year.

• FIXED INCOME NEWS

• - Hong Kong sees a surge in dollar bond sales.

• - Japan's 20-year bond sale experiences strong demand.

• - FSB warns of potential stability issues due to tightening funding conditions.

• FX NEWS

• - Asian currencies stabilize as US-Iran developments unfold.

• - Dollar-Yen remains under 159.50 due to USD weakness.

• COMMODITIES/ENERGY

• - China relaxes restrictions on certain BHP iron ore shipments.

• - Oil prices drop amid diplomatic resolution hopes and US-Iran talks.

• EQUITIES

• - Ford's CEO advocates for limiting Chinese carmaker access to the US market.

• - S&P 500 rebounds as earnings season begins, despite geopolitical concerns.

• - Dell and HP shares decline following Nvidia's denial of a takeover rumor.

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1600 (EU2.52b), 1.1700 (EU1.53b), 1.1650 (EU1.04b)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 ($1.2b), 156.00 ($655m), 118.60 ($595m)

• AUD/USD: 0.6965 (AUD966.3m), 0.6850 (AUD954.6m), 0.7140 (AUD705.7m)

• USD/BRL: 5.1600 ($418.4m), 5.4000 ($401.9m), 5.0000 ($400m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400 (GBP819.3m), 1.3450 (GBP345.6m), 1.3350 (GBP344m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3850 ($389.8m)

• NZD/USD: 0.5810 (NZD605.8m)

CFTC Positions as of April 10, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 12,328 contracts to 228,259

• Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 27,168 contracts to 939,849

• Speculators trim CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 33,911 contracts to 1,552,929

• Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 39,561 contracts to 823,624

• Speculators increase CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 74,691 contracts to 1,712,015

• Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 7,746 contracts to 260,383

• Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 27,363 contracts to 58,996

• Bitcoin net long position is 2,540 contracts

• Swiss franc posts net short position of -30,694 contracts

• British pound net short position is -56,354 contracts

• Euro net short position is -7,541 contracts

• The net short position in Japanese yen is -93,742 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 6730 Target 6970

• Below 6690 Target 6585

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 100 Target 100.50

• Below 99.50 Target 97.50

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.17 Target 1.1830

• Below 1.1640 Target 1.1550

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3350 Target 1.3550

• Below 1.3340 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 159 Target 161

• Below 158 Target 157.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 72k Target 78.5k

• Below 70k Target 67k